Re: Shawn Welch
ORB File No: 8285
Hearing held on: Thursday, September 25, 2025
Place of hearing: Southwest Centre for Forensic Mental Health Care 401 Sunset Drive, St. Thomas
Pursuant to: Section 672.81(1) of the Criminal Code
Before:
Alternate Chairperson: Mr. G. Beasley
Members: Dr. T. Verny Dr. R. Chandrasena Ms. K. Tomaszewski Ms. M. McKinnon
Parties Appearing:
Accused: Shawn Welch Counsel: Ms. N.C. Circelli
The person in charge of hospital: Counsel: Ms. J. Zamprogna
Attorney General of Ontario: Counsel: Mr. D. Rows
REASONS FOR DISPOSITION
(Dated November 20, 2025)
Introduction
On April 27, 2023, the accused, Shawn Welch, was found not criminally responsible on account of mental disorder on charges of break and enter a dwelling house, assault and mischief not exceeding $5000, all contrary to the Criminal Code of Canada. By reason of a Disposition of the Ontario Review Board (“ORB”), dated October 7, 2024, Mr. Welch was ordered to be detained at the Southwest Centre for Forensic Mental Health Care (“Southwest Centre”), St. Joseph's Health Care London, with privileges up to and including residing in the community in accommodation approved by the person in charge.
On September 25, 2025, the ORB convened a hearing at the Southwest Centre for the purpose of the annual review of Mr. Welch’s Disposition pursuant to s. 672.81(1) of the Criminal Code. Mr. Welch was in attendance at the hearing and was represented by counsel, Ms. Circelli. Ms. Zamprogna appeared as counsel for the hospital and Mr. Rows as counsel for the Attorney General of Ontario.
Index Offences
- The circumstances of the index offences are taken from the Hospital Report and are as follows:
“On Tuesday, October 26, 2021, at approximately 2:45 pm the accused attended the residence of his ex-girlfriend’s mother located at P[…], Guelph. The accused’s 6-year-old son, Edward Martin, resides at that address with his grandmother, Montagnina MARTIN, the victim, and his mother, Michelle MARTIN. Neither Michelle nor Edward was home at the time, however, the victim was at home alone.
The accused proceeded to knock aggressively at the garage man door, demanding to be let into the house to see his son. The victim called out to the accused that he was not to be on the property and asked him to leave. The accused refused and proceeded to kick the man door to the garage open, breaking the door frame.
Upon hearing the loud crash, the victim peeked out into the garage from the main door which leads to the main living area of the residence. The accused forcibly struggled with the victim to enter the living area and forced her aside after pushing the door open. The victim fled the residence to a neighbour's house where she contacted the police. Several minutes later, the victim observed the accused leaving the property and walking into the park across the street.
At approximately 4:30 pm, the accused was located by police on Bristol Street near Surrey Street West, Guelph, where he was placed under arrest for Assault, Unlawful in a Dwelling and Mischief Under $5000. The accused was read rights to counsel and cautioned and subsequently transported to the Guelph Police Station where he lodged to await a bail hearing on Wednesday, October 27, 2021.
Current Diagnoses
- The current diagnoses are taken from the Hospital Report as follows:
Schizoaffective Disorder
Substance Use Disorder (alcohol, crystal methamphetamine, cannabis), in remission
Criminal Record
2004 December 21 Guelph, ON
Assault Sec 266 CC
Suspended sentence & Probation for 12 months
09 December 11 Kitchener, ON
(1) Fail or Refuse to provide Sample, Section 254(5) CC
$1000
2018 October 04 Guelph, ON
(1) Criminal Harassment, Sec 264 (1) CC (2) Uttering Threats, Sec 264.1(1) (A), CC
(1) Suspended Sentence & Probation18 months (42 days pre-sentence custody) & mandatory weapons prohibition, Sec 109 CC (2) Suspended sentence & Probation 18 mos
2018 October 04 Guelph, ON
Assault Sec 266 CC
Suspended sentence & probation 18 mos
2018 October 04 Guelph, ON
Fail to Comply with Recognizance Sec 145(3) CC
Suspended sentence & probation 18 mos
2018 October 04 Guelph, ON
Dangerous Operation of Motor Vehicle Sec 249(1) (A) CC
Suspended sentence & probation 18 mos & Prohibited from Operating a Motor Vehicle, Sec 259(1) CC for 9 mos
2023 March 14 Guelph, ON
(1) Assault, Sec 266 CC (2) Causing a Disturbance, Sec 175(1)(A) CC
(1-2) 1 Day & Probation 12 mos (140 days pre-sentence custody) & Discretionary Weapons Prohibition Sec 110 CC for 10 years
2023 March 14 Guelph, ON
Fail to Comply with Order, Sec 145(5) (A) CC
Probation 12 mos (credit for the equivalent of 141 days pre-sentence custody)
2023 March 14 Guelph, ON
Fail to Comply with Order, Sec 145(5) (A) CC
Probation 12 mos (credit for the equivalent of 141 days pre- sentence custody)
2023 March 14 Guelph, ON
(1) Mischief, Sec 430(1) (C) CC (2) Break & Enter and Commit, Sec 348(1)(B) CC
(1-2) Probation 12 mos (credit for the equivalent of 141 days pre-sentence custody
2023 March 14 Guelph, ON
Fail to Attend Court, Sec 145(2)(B) CC
Probation 12 mos (credit for the equivalent of 141 days pre-sentence custody)
Background and Personal History
Mr. Welch’s background and personal history are comprehensively reviewed in the Hospital Report which was filed as an exhibit. Accordingly, there will be no extensive reference to the details in these Reasons. Mr. Welch was born in Guelph, Ontario. His parents separated when he was two years old and Mr. Welch did not see his father again until he was 20 years old. He has two sisters; one lives in the Toronto area and the other in Cambridge. At the age of 11, Mr. Welch was kidnapped by a stranger who kept him overnight in a tent and sexually assaulted him. This assault was not reported until some 17 years later at which time the attacker was charged and convicted. Mr. Welch attended high school but did not graduate, falling three credits short of his diploma. Although he indicated that he had a good relationship with both teachers and fellow students, his grades gradually dropped throughout school. He eventually left school to work in construction. Mr. Welch has a history of working in the construction industry in various roles and at one time had his own drywall company. He has also been involved with a rock'n'roll band. He stopped working following a work-related injury at the age of 34. Mr. Welch currently receives ODSP.
Although he has never been married, Mr. Welch has had two long-term intimate relationships. The second of those resulted in the birth of his son, Edward, who is now 8 years old. The relationship with Edward's mother was described as toxic and was the background for the index offence.
Mr. Welch has a long history of mental health treatment in the civil system. He has been admitted to hospital in the past on an involuntary basis. This history is set out in detail in the Hospital Report.
Position of the Parties
- At the outset of the hearing, counsel for the hospital, Ms. Zamprogna, submitted that Mr. Welch continues to represent a significant threat to the safety of the public. However, Ms. Zamprogna submitted that in the opinion of the hospital and the treatment team, Mr. Welch could be safely managed under the terms of a Conditional Discharge. Counsel for the Attorney General of Ontario, Mr. Rows and counsel for Mr. Welch, Ms. Circelli, supported the opinions and recommendation of the treatment team and the hospital.
Evidence
The evidence on behalf of the hospital was presented by Dr. Arun Prakash. He is Mr. Welch’s attending psychiatrist and the author of the Hospital Report and Update. Dr. Prakash testified that Mr. Welch left the hospital in October of 2024 to live in Guelph with his mother and stepfather. Since June of 2025, he has been living independently in an apartment in the same building as his parents. The move to Guelph has enabled him to reconnect with both the community, and most importantly, with his son. Because his son no longer lives with the victim of the index offence, Mr. Welch has been able to increase his visitation and contact with him. He is very pleased with this arrangement, and it has the benefit of easing the anxiety he felt about his son's treatment which was the basis for the index offence.
Dr. Prakash stated that of significance is Mr. Welch’s abstinence from substance use. Mr. Welch now has a greater appreciation of his need for antipsychotic medication and the benefits from avoiding the use of substances.
Dr. Prakash stated that he has changed his diagnosis of Mr. Welch. He does not believe that he suffers from a delusional disorder but that he suffers from a schizoaffective disorder. This change was based on a review of documentation received from Waypoint which indicated that there were symptoms of psychosis during Mr. Welch’s time at that hospital. Mr. Welch accepts the new diagnosis that has been made.
Dr. Prakash stated that Mr. Welch’s new independent living arrangement will be a test of his ability to remain abstinent from substance use. Mr. Welch is currently looking for work but is supported at this time by ODSP. The apartment that Mr. Welch resides in is subsidized by the city of Guelph.
Dr. Prakash said that he had spoken to Mr. Welch's mother who has been very helpful to both Mr. Welch and the treatment team. She is aware of the signs and symptoms of decompensation by her son and is willing to report them to Dr. Prakash and the treatment team. Mr. Welch has arranged for a sponsor for a local Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) group. He is also making friends with others in the community. Dr. Prakash stated that in his opinion Mr. Welch can be safely managed in the community under the terms of a Conditional Discharge as set out in the Hospital Report. Dr. Prakash said the only unknown factor at this time is the continued presence of Mr. Welch’s parents in the apartment building. At this time, they are the caretakers of the building but there is new management involved, and their future status is unknown.
Dr. Prakash stated that Mr. Welch has a new family doctor in Guelph who is prepared to give him the long-acting injections of antipsychotic medication. Because he is receiving injections, Dr. Prakash stated that any relapse in Mr. Welch’s mental status would be slow to develop. The main risk to Mr. Welch’s ongoing mental health is substance use. Dr. Prakash stated that the treatment team believe that they can rely upon Mr. Welch's parents and his sister to provide ongoing support and report any difficulties to the treatment team. Dr. Prakash stated that the parents and his sister are aware of the provisions of the Mental Health Act (MHA) and that this is sufficient to manage Mr. Welch in the community. Finally, Dr. Prakash stated that Mr. Welch’s insight into his mental illness and his risk for violence is developing. Mr. Welch states that he has learned from his mistakes and desires to live “a good life.”
Mr. Rows did not have any questions for Dr. Prakash.
In response to questions from Ms. Circelli, Dr. Prakash stated that Mr. Welch’s last psychosis occurred when he was at Waypoint in 2023. Mr. Welch has been abstinent from substance use since 2023. Dr. Prakash said that Mr. Welch has had an AA sponsor for over a year and attends meetings on a weekly basis. Dr. Prakash confirmed that Mr. Welch’s time that he is able to spend with his son is a positive reinforcement in his recovery. Mr. Welch needs structure and would benefit from obtaining employment as this would be a positive step for his self-esteem.
In response to a question from a member of the Board, Dr. Prakash confirmed that the treatment team believe that the MHA will be sufficient to provide for Mr. Welch’s safe management in the community. The treatment team have reviewed the process for a Form 2 with Mr. Welch's parents. Mr. Welch’s mother is aware of the steps which need to be taken in the event of an observed decompensation in the community. Dr. Prakash stated that he would be prepared to travel to the Guelph area to meet with Mr. Welch if necessary. In response to another question, Dr. Prakash said that Mr. Welch is able to describe the anxiety which can lead to depression. He has taken CBT therapy and has a number of relaxation techniques which he uses as a coping mechanism for stress. Dr. Prakash stated that Mr. Welch’s new community doctor has been fully briefed with respect to the expectations of the forensic team. He stated that if the outcome of this hearing was the recommended Disposition, then the treatment team would begin to move forward in transitioning Mr. Welch’s care to a community-based psychiatrist. Mr. Welch will continue to receive the full support of the forensic team over the next reporting year.
Neither Mr. Rows nor Ms. Circelli called evidence at the hearing.
Submissions
- At the conclusion of the evidence, all counsel reiterated the joint submission made at the outset of the hearing.
Analysis and Disposition
- The threshold issue for the Board to determine is whether or not Mr. Welch continues to represent a significant threat to the safety of the public. Significant threat is defined in the Criminal Code in s. 672.5401 as a risk of serious physical or psychological harm resulting from conduct that is criminal in nature but not necessarily violent. The threat must be real and not speculative. The significant threat standard is an onerous one. In the absence of the positive finding of significant threat, then an absolute discharge must be ordered. An accused is not to be detained based on mere speculation; the Board must be satisfied as to both the existence and gravity of the risk of physical or psychological harm posed by the accused to deny them an absolute discharge. As set out in [Winko (1999] 1999 CanLII 694 (SCC)](https://www.minicounsel.ca/scc/1999/694), 2 S.C.R. 625) the threat must be:
(1) More than speculative in nature and must be supported by the evidence;
(2) Significant in the sense of there being a real risk of physical or psychological harm to individuals in the community and in the sense that this potential harm must be serious; and
(3) The conduct creating the harm must be criminal in nature.
The Board is unanimous in accepting the uncontradicted opinion of Dr. Prakash that Mr. Welch continues to represent a significant threat to the safety of the public. Mr. Welch has only recently been diagnosed with a primary psychotic mental disorder which in the past has led to violent behaviour. Although he is adherent to his prescribed antipsychotic medication, this responsibility has just recently been transferred to his family doctor from the forensic team. Mr. Welch has not yet aligned with any community-based mental health program. Mr. Welch has developed insight into his mental illness, his need for treatment, and his future risk for violence; however, he continues to minimize the impact of stress on his mental condition and his potential to become violent in the future. Mr. Welch has a long history of substance use. Although currently abstinent, he has very recently moved into fully independent living which will test his ability to avoid substance use.
Notwithstanding the risk outlined above, the Board unanimously accepts the opinion of the treatment team that Mr. Welch can be safely managed under the terms of a conditional discharge. He has strong community-based support including his parents, siblings, Alcoholics Anonymous and a family doctor. In particular, his mother has been fully informed of the need to observe Mr. Welch for any signs of decompensation and to report them to the hospital and the treatment team. Additionally, Mr. Welch's mother is aware of the process of obtaining a Form 2 under the Mental Health Act. The Board unanimously endorses the disposition provisions outlined in the Hospital Report.
DATED this 20^th^ day of November 2025, at the City of Toronto, in the Region of Toronto.
Mr. G. Beasley
Alternate Chairperson
____________________________
Office of the Registrar
Ontario Review Board